Vafidemstat is a small molecule commercialized by Oryzon Genomics, with a leading Phase II program in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). According to Globaldata, it is involved in 14 clinical trials, of which 10 were completed, and 4 are ongoing. GlobalData uses proprietary data and analytics to provide a complete picture of Vafidemstats valuation in its risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). Buy the model here.
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The revenue for Vafidemstat is expected to reach an annual total of $220 mn by 2036 globally based off GlobalDatas Expiry Model. The drugs revenue forecasts along with estimated costs are used to measure the value of an investment opportunity in that drug, otherwise known as net present value (NPV). Applying the drugs phase transition success rate to remaining R&D costs and likelihood of approval (LoA) to sales related costs provides a risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV). The rNPV model is a more conservative valuation measure that accounts for the risk of a drug in clinical development failing to progress.
Vafidemstat Overview
Vafidemstat (ORY-2001) is under development for the treatment of Phelan-McDermid Syndrome, Alzheimer's disease, Huntington’s disease, Parkinson's disease, other dementias, relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, aggressiveness (psychosis) associated with psychiatric and neuro-degenerative diseases such as lewy body dementia (DLB), Alzheimer's disease, autism spectrum syndrome (ASD), borderline personality disorder (BPD) and adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), Kabuki syndrome, Schizophrenia other autoimmune and orphan CNS diseases, pneumonia/acute respiratory distress syndrome in seriously ill COVID-19 patients. The drug candidate is administered orally, formulated as capsule. It targets monoamine oxidase type B (MOA-B) and lysine specific histone demethylase 1A (LSD1). The drug candidate is developed based on the epigenetic platform.
Oryzon Genomics Overview
Oryzon Genomics (Oryzon) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develops epigenetic therapies to treat oncology and neurodegenerative diseases. The company provides epigenetics, a regulatory system that controls gene expression without affecting the makeup of the genes themselves and provides regulation of gene transcription that has emerged as a key biological determinant of protein production and cellular differentiation. Oryzon clinical-stage products include ORY-1001, an oncology product for treating acute leukemia disease, ORY-2001 for treating Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and others and ORY-3001 for treating other indications of cancer and ORY-4001 a selective HDAC6 inhibitor. It provides therapeutic programs and collaborative research services. It operates offices in Spain and the US. Oryzon is headquartered in Cornella de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
The operating loss of the company was EUR4.6 million in FY2023, compared to an operating loss of EUR5.5 million in FY2022. The net loss of the company was EUR3.4 million in FY2023, compared to a net loss of EUR4.2 million in FY2022.
For a complete picture of Vafidemstats valuation, buy the drugs risk-adjusted NPV model (rNPV) here.
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To create this model, GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, drug margins and company expenses. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
The rNPV method integrates the probability of a drug reaching a clinical stage into the cash flow at that time, which provides a more accurate valuation, as it considers the probability that the drug never makes it through the clinical pathway to commercialization. GlobalData’s rNPV model uses proprietary likelihood of approval (LoA) and phase transition success rate (PTSR) data for the indication in the highest development stage, which can be found on GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.
