Earlier this year, the Trump Administration, backed by US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy (RFK) Jr, a long-time vaccine sceptic, announced plans to scrap over a third of vaccines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) childhood immunisation schedule. As the world’s single largest vaccine manufacturer, according to GlobalData, US vaccine manufacturers could be significantly hit by the reduced immunisation demand.
As per the figure below, the US currently reigns as the world’s leading manufacturer of FDA-approved vaccines by approximately 36%, with 45 vaccines manufactured in 32 facilities nationwide. According to GlobalData’s Drug By Manufacturer database, among the countries that manufacture vaccines for the US market, the average country supplies eight vaccines. By comparison, US-based production is just over five times that average, highlighting how concentrated the US’s domestic supply is and the heavy reliance US vaccine manufacturers have on the constant and predictable domestic immunisation demand.
With seven out of 11 vaccines planned for removal from the childhood schedule, production demand is at risk of significantly falling, a risk reinforced at the state level. In September 2025, Florida’s health department pledged to scrap all vaccine mandates. The third-most populated state moved forward with a bill in January to weaken childhood vaccine requirements. Other states are expected to follow, as RFK Jr’s allied “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) groups leverage rising vaccine scepticism to push for weaker mandates, and in turn, reduced production demand.
GlobalData’s region-based forecast revealed that 2025 US-manufactured vaccine sales hit their lowest since the pandemic. Between 2022 and 2025, the 75% downward compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has primarily been driven by the transition from emergency Covid vaccine demand to seasonal, however, it is also attributed to the declining vaccination rates across the US. According to the CDC, last year, only 92.5% of children were reported to be vaccinated for measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) and polio, compared with approximately 95% pre-Covid.
Florida reported a staggeringly low 88% childhood MMR vaccination coverage, with weakened mandates yet to take effect. Ironically, this comes after last year’s and recent executive orders from the White House to raise tariffs, claimed to strengthen domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing. Cutting the childhood schedule, however, may offset the reshoring of pharmaceutical production these tariffs aim to support. With vaccination rates continuing to fall, these changes in public health policies are a nail in the coffin for the aspirations to grow the domestic manufacturing industry, by ultimately weakening production demand, sales, and development incentives.
As the world’s leading vaccine manufacturer, the proposed cuts to the CDC childhood vaccine schedule and incoming changes to state-level mandates risk significantly dropping the domestic immunisation demand that US manufacturers rely on. With the newly announced bill and ongoing MAHA campaigns, we can only expect vaccination rates, and with it, vaccine production demand, to continue to fall.
