The burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cases with hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection is expected to grow between 2015 and 2025 in the nine major markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, China, Brazil, and Japan). GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the number of diagnosed prevalent HIV-HCV co-infections, most notably in China, the US, and Brazil. Figure 1 presents the expected changes in the 9MM from 2015 to 2025.

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HIV is a virus that attacks the CD4 cells of the immune system. This weakens the immune system, leaving an infected individual more susceptible to other illnesses and, over time, impairing the individual’s ability to fight off infections. HCV is a virus that infects the liver and causes hepatitis C. While chronic HCV infections do not immediately show symptoms, they may eventually lead to liver disease, such as cirrhosis or liver cancer. Like HIV, it can be spread by blood-to-blood contact, and injection drug use is a major source of HCV infections. The shared methods of transmission and risk factors of these two infections make HCV a highly prevalent comorbidity of HIV.

The total number of diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV with HCV co-infection in the 9MM is expected to grow from 881,728 in 2015 to 1,094,816 in 2025 for an annual growth rate (AGR) of 2.41%. This growth is largely due to an increase in diagnosed prevalent HIV cases in China, Brazil, and the US, which have especially high rates of HIV cases that are co-infected with HCV. China is expected to experience the greatest increase in co-infected HIV-HCV cases, from 340,665 in 2015 to 450,844 in 2025. The dual burden of HIV and HCV will be a major challenge for these countries in the fight against HIV.

Details about the trend analysis and other discussions of HIV epidemiology can be found in the EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025 and the EpiCast Model: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025.